The recent technological advances are not “emerging”, and they are not a “tectonic shift”. If we are going to use biological or geological metaphors, then they are “exploding”; they are “an earthquake”; they are disruptive and they are forcing a new way of doing things more rapidly than previous changes. The time to adopt these technologies is getting shorter and shorter. We do not have time to proceduralize or mature our processes before a new disruption occurs. A new technology is adopted, a new economic meltdown obliterates part of the workforce, time to market is becoming measurable in milliseconds not years or months or weeks or days, and our work is revolutionized. This is the world in which I work.
In a prior post (“Disruption is the New Trend”), I wrote about how we are dealing with disruptive technologies, not gradual trends, across our profession and I joked that “Disruption is the new Trend”. Instead of “trends” we should be talking about “disruptions“. And the more I think about it, the more I realize that we talk about these disruptions on the fringes but we don’t face them head on – at least I have not seen these discussed forthrightly on any single site related to our profession. So here goes – here are my Top 10 disruptions. Well, I only have seven right now, but I’m sure another three will come along before we know it.
1. Exponential Adoption of the Web as a Universal Platform
It is truly amazing that in less than a generation we have gone from no computers to lots of computers, and from networked computers to Internet-worked computers and we are not stopping there. I count this one first because we should not just assume it – not take it for granted. Companies and groups and individuals have realized the benefit of connectedness on a scale never before seen. We have adopted the World Wide Web as the universal platform where we can file our taxes, shop, fill out insurance claims, do research, find extended family tree branches, listen to music, post videos, see our bank records, talk with family, and of course, work, whenever we want wherever we are. It is no longer just web sites, but web applications and now, its latest incarnation, the cloud, the realization that we can truly do all this online work completely online free from local limitations. We can store files online, we can talk online, we can run our applications online (not based on our local computer’s hard drive) but using services provided by others who are also online.
Inside enterprises, not open to the rest of the world, the same technology is being adopted for private clouds, intranets, worlds within worlds. Whole municipalities are looking at getting Internet access to their citizens in city-wide hot spots. New devices, even ones in cars, are being developed from the start to have Internet access.
2. Social Media in a Broad Sense
There is nothing emerging about social media. It is taking the web by storm and being adopted so quickly, we are not sure what will happen next. In this category, I also include online collaboration and crowd sourcing, open source projects and social networks, and any place where people are connected with people more intimately online than ever before, allowing people to see each other while they are talking, share data while they are deciding, and allowing grass-roots analytics govern their rating of items. It’s not just that social networks give people a chance to connect with each other and with data; we are also integrating social network applications and allowing subscription models to keep people and data connected in more ways and in more densely connected ways.
3. Mobile Technology
The site of people talking apparently to themselves and buying items from a vending machine with their cell phone are familiar images for us these days. But this is more than just a convenience of a smaller more portable phone. Mobile technology is disruptive because it offers people immediate access to the Web wherever they are, so it means more real-time decision making, more instantaneous exchange of information, more instant access by more people. As access to the universal platform of the web becomes ubiquitous, the points of access will become easier, cheaper, and even more immediate. Mobile technology could just as easily be called Instant technology.
4. Convergence of Previously Disparate Technologies
Closely related to mobile technology is the convergence of previously disparate technologies, each with specialized functions, becoming simply modules of a single device that as yet has no unified and agreed-upon name. Such devices as photo cameras, video cameras, phones, keyboards, movie viewers, book readers, email readers, GPS (or GNSS) devices, personal assistants, and more are all coming together.
5. Advances in Web Display
This one, too, is related to the advances in convergence and shrinking size. Web sites and web apps are deploying more interactivity, using more JavaScript frameworks and AJAX, more desktop functionality, richer graphics and more sophisticated graphical displays than ever before. Devices are providing larger screens with higher resolutions.
6. A Single Global Economy
Thanks to Larry Kunz for this one. He said the “emergence of a single, global economy. Companies can easily send work to other parts of the world with the expectation that the work product will be much cheaper but still good enough to meet objectives. This represents another earthquake for the people who used to do this work and haven’t broadened their skill sets.” Too true. Well, maybe this is a trend since it’s taking a while to come about, but it’s not happening evenly everywhere, so it is partly a trend and partly a disruption.
7. Commoditized Monetized Chopped Up Content
This one may also be a trend. Ten years ago, Dr. Robert Kelton was afraid of modularizing documentation, something he thought was anathema to our work as writers, but we all saw it coming. So this was has had years of gestation but it seems it is happening so quickly now. Chop up your content into topics. Now those topics, even smaller units, much like microblogging posts, are being monetized and being analyzed with metrics. I’m putting analytics and all in this disruption. Search engine optimization based on keywords, an even smaller unit of content, is rampant. Content is a commodity as just another ingredient to a project.
This is only the beginning. The aftershocks have yet to be felt. These are not future trends, these are present disruptions. Let me know what you see. And do it quickly!